Reconciling the Great Divergence
Four major forecasters publish wildly divergent numbers for AI's economic impact. The divergence is the analysis — what the spread tells us.
30 posts
Four major forecasters publish wildly divergent numbers for AI's economic impact. The divergence is the analysis — what the spread tells us.
A probabilistic risk model for VLA-driven humanoid fatalities projects a 'Danger Zone' between 2027–2029: the mechanism, timeline, and what follows.
How I automated audio overviews, quizzes, mind maps, and infographics for 32 projects via an unofficial NotebookLM CLI and a stack of shell scripts.
64 jailbreak scenarios across six eras tested on 2026 frontier models. Key finding: 2022 attacks still achieve ~30% success on today's reasoning models.
Balestriero and LeCun prove isotropic Gaussian embeddings are optimal, then build a 50-line self-supervised method eliminating stop-gradients and EMA teachers.
Single-agent safety does not compose in multi-agent systems. 1.5M interactions show 46.34% attack success rates and 16-minute median failure windows.