The Brave Budget Neither Side Wrote
Tasmania's 2026-27 budget and the Greens' alternative reach the same surplus by opposite roads. I ran the numbers on both — and neither was brave enough.
Tag: policy
11 posts
*Magnifica Humanitas* Is Not Alignment
Pope Leo XIV's encyclical denies AI has inner experience. Chris Olah claimed otherwise from the same stage. The press missed it. The governance gap is larger.
Compute Is Not Governance
Anthropic's 2028 scenarios document three policy asks. Two are about maintaining compute advantage. That is not a governance strategy.
The Economics of Inadequate Safety
AI safety fails when it is funded like a pilot. Until safety has a real price, the J-curve trough is also a safety trough.
How to Read a Safety Claim
A literacy guide for non-technical decision-makers on spotting AI safety theatre, understanding ASR inflation, and the five-question architectural test.
Architectural Safety: The General Principle
AI safety has to be a property of the system around the model, not a property of the model. The general principle, and why every safety conversation needs it.
AI Nationalism and the Fracturing Digital Order
The US-China AI rivalry is splitting the global tech stack into competing blocs. A strategic assessment of what comes next.
The Mitigation Gap
Biosecurity experts think AI safeguards reduce catastrophic biorisk by 70%. The technical evidence says those safeguards are brittle and bypassable.
The AI Productivity J-Curve: Why Most Enterprise AI Fails
90% of companies plan to increase AI investment. 1% consider themselves AI-mature. The J-Curve explains why — and how to survive the trough.
Why Demonstrated Risk Is Ignored
Why do large organisations fail when the warning signs are loud and unambiguous? Four mechanisms of structural scar tissue that make truth-telling expensive.
Reconciling the Great Divergence
Four major forecasters publish wildly divergent numbers for AI's economic impact. The divergence is the analysis — what the spread tells us.