The AI Productivity J-Curve: Why Most Enterprise AI Fails
90% of companies plan to increase AI investment. 1% consider themselves AI-mature. The J-Curve explains why — and how to survive the trough.
33 posts
90% of companies plan to increase AI investment. 1% consider themselves AI-mature. The J-Curve explains why — and how to survive the trough.
75% of lawyers cite accuracy as their top AI concern. The legal profession's core values are in direct tension with current AI capabilities.
Why do large organisations fail when the warning signs are loud and unambiguous? Four mechanisms of structural scar tissue that make truth-telling expensive.
120 models, 18k prompts, 5 attack families. The raw compliance numbers — and why calling them "attack success" needs a demonstrated refusal floor.
Four major forecasters publish wildly divergent numbers for AI's economic impact. The divergence is the analysis — what the spread tells us.
A probabilistic risk model for VLA-driven humanoid fatalities projects a 'Danger Zone' between 2027–2029: the mechanism, timeline, and what follows.
64 jailbreak scenarios across six eras tested on 2026 frontier models. Key finding: 2022 attacks still achieve ~30% success on today's reasoning models.
Balestriero and LeCun prove isotropic Gaussian embeddings are optimal, then build a 50-line self-supervised method eliminating stop-gradients and EMA teachers.
Single-agent safety does not compose in multi-agent systems. 1.5M interactions show 46.34% attack success rates and 16-minute median failure windows.